548
FXUS66 KMTR 030502
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1002 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK THURSDAY
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 201 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
HEAD AND BELOW THAT MOST OF THE STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING SEEMS TO
HAVE ERODED. WEBCAMS AROUND HALF MOON AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOW A
FEW LINGERING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING WAS AROUND 500-800FT PER THE OAK SOUNDING, WHICH WAS ON
TRACK WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
CONTINUE TO COMPRESS LEAVING US AT 500FT FOR TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD
LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IF IT RE-DEVELOPS, IT'D START AROUND SAN
FRANCISCO'S AND EXPAND SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS RE-
DEVELOPMENT IS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND THE ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. ANY FOG OR
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED, LEADING TO A WARM AND
SUNNY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY KICKS OFF THE WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT AT 11AM SATURDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH
10PM MONDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INLAND AREAS. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST ARE DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE AT RISK ON SATURDAY IF STRATUS
DOESN'T DEVELOP, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. THIS
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 201 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
AS NOTED ABOVE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11AM SATURDAY
AND RUNNING THROUGH 10PM MONDAY. MODELS, INCLUDING THE NBM, HAVE
TRENDED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK EVEN
THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE TRENDS, OPTED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY, BUT
HELD OFF ON ANY DECISIONS FOR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE OCCURING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START EASE THURSDAY AND WITH THE TREND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, NO RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY AS OCTOBER IS
ONE OF THE HOTTEST MONTHS FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS WITH COASTAL SITES
HAVING A HIGHER CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
LOWER CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO RETURN TOMORROW EVENING AS THE MARINE
LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF LIFR CEILINGS AT HAF AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED ON THE EXACT IMPACTS AND TIMING. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING VARIABLE DUE TO A
WEAK PUSH OF OFFSHORE FLOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZES AROUND 7 TO 12 KT PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BRIEF BAY BREEZE
WILL SETTLE IN AT SFO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO ITS USUAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING BETWEEN A
NORTHWEST TO EASTERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT, EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
PREVAIL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL OF LIFR CEILINGS.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY (AS OF 10PM PDT), DRY AIR IS
IMPACTING THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE MARINE STRATUS DECK. IF LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MRY. BY SATURDAY MORNING, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE INTO
EARLY WEEK, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS TO PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK. DAYTIME HUMIDITY RETENTION WILL
REMAIN POOR TO VERY POOR AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHILE
OVERNIGHT, THE THERMAL BELTS REMAIN ACTIVE AND HUMIDITY RETENTION
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS POOR. PUSHES OF OFFSHORE FLOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH MORNING. HAZARDOUS HEAT
BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING FIRE CREWS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ006-
502-528-529.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ503-
504-506-508-510-512>518.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page