694
FXUS66 KMTR 040452
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
952 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
TODAY AND SUNDAY
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 111 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE MORNING STARTED OFF WITH STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
STARTING ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST TO THE BIG SUR COAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WAS SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS AND FOG MIXED OUT
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE, LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY, EXCEEDING THEIR
INITIAL FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST THEM WITH
THE LATE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE, BUT EVEN THEN SOME SITES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED THEIR FORECAST HIGHS. LOOKING TO TOMORROW, THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE SIMILAR IF NOT HOTTER MEANING TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW, OPTED TO KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED FOR SUNDAY THE SAME AND NOT INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MONTEREY BAY. HOWEVER, SHOULD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO EXCEED THEIR FORECAST AMOUNT, THEY MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TOMORROW.
ALL THAT TO BE SAID, WE'RE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE HEAT WAVE AND
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. MAKE SURE TO BEAT
THE HEAT BY PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY. YOU CAN VISIT WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY
FOR MORE INFORMATION, BUT HERE A FEW QUICK HANDY TIPS.
* STAY HYDRATED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
* WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
* REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE.
* NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
* USE SUNSCREEN IF GOING TO THE COAST OR THE POOL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 111 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN WHERE IT'LL HAPPEN, THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR
BAY AREA AND INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10PM
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO IT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BEING FOR THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY REGION.
ELSEWHERE, LIKE SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, AND THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO LOW THUS WE OPTED TO HOLD OUT ON
EXTENDING OR ADDING THESE BEYOND SUNDAY. NONETHELESS, IT'LL BE HOT,
SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO
AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, AROUND FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. THE CURRENT
FORECAST, IF WE DON'T STAY IN A RIDGING PATTERN, HAS MUCH OF THE
REGION IN MINOR HEATRISK. HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST, THE UPPER 70S TO MID 90S FOR INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND THE 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE SHOW EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR THE BEGINNING OF
TROUGHING STARTING TO FORM. TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL A BIT IFFY
AS TO WHEN ANY SORT OF TROUGH MAKES IT HERE, BUT IT'S SOMETHING
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE 00Z WEATHER BALLOON FOUND NO TRACE OF A MARINE LAYER AT
OAKLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE, WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK OFFSHORE
WINDS VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY AT ALL BUT THE MOST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MRY AND HAF ARE THE EXCEPTIONS,
WHERE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN IF THAT HAPPENS, IT WILL CLEAR QUICKLY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...WESTERLY WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN, WITH A GENTLE
BREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. W-NW WINDS WILL REACH
10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PRETTY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR MRY.
THERE IS A 9C DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE MOMENT, BUT IT WAS 14C
LESS THAN AN HOUR AGO. WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS, THERE IS
FINALLY SOME MARINE INFLUENCE BEING FELT AT THE TERMINAL. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY MORNING,
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. AT THE
MONTEREY BUOY, THE DEW POINT MATCHES THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (16C) AND THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
(16.2C). THAT'S A PRETTY IDEAL SET-UP FOR FOG FORMATION, BUT IT
HASN'T FORMED IN THE BAY YET.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NW BREEZE AND MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. POOR TO VERY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THERMAL BELTS, GENERALLY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FEET, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AROUND 500 FEET. A PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD START TO BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVED RH RECOVERY ON FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ006-502-505-509-
528>530.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ503-504-506-508-
510-512>518.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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