013
FXUS66 KMTR 220705
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1205 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1202 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WINDOW FOR A CHANCE OF LOW-TOP SUPERCELLS AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT HAS CLOSED WITH JUST LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
FOR SPOTS THAT SEE ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS OR SO. THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM
0.10"-0.50" FOR MOST SPOTS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH
COASTAL AREAS ASSISTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW TO SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS.
THE RAINFALL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAPER OFF ENTIRELY
BY SUNSET TONIGHT AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN AMID SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING WAVE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1202 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
PWATS BEGIN TO DROP MORE CONSIDERABLY LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING
FRIDAY INDICATING FURTHER DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HOVER
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH NO BIG WARMUP
INDICATED UNDER RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE, PROGRESSIVE RIDGING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP
WELL OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 851 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR-IFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE
WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 5 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY 10 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT TO 15
KNOTS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER POINT CONCEPTION THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN REACH NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE BREEZES EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUSTY IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO NEAR GALE
BREEZES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE SEAS BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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