660
FXUS66 KMTR 222003
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
103 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 5 PM TO 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS AS UP TO 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
THIS REGION, WITH AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO REMAIN
RAIN SHOWERS AT THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF DAYTIME WARMING OCCURING
DUE TO MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST ESPECIALLY OVER MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
WARMING. HOWEVER, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NORTH BAY TO UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST.
PERIODS OF MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, POTENTIALLY STRONGER IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER, THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ONLY RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE AROUND LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND ALONG THE COAST ARE
LIKELY TO SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND DURING PEAK
HIGH TIDES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
LOW CONF TODAY ON EXACT TIMING AND CLOUDS/VIS DETAILS GIVEN
TRANSIENT NATURE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE GENERAL PICTURE MOSTLY
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITH RA AND -SHRA.
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF PRECIP BY THIS EVENING. POST SYSTEM REGIME
WILL FEATURE COOLING AND DAMP LOW LEVEL LATE TONIGHT AD EARLY
FRIDAY. AS SUCH, SOME RADIATION FG IS POSS FOR STS WITH LOW
STRATO-CU AT OTHER TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR TO MVFR WITH POSS -SHRA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS LOW CONF, BUT HAVE MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TO MVFR WITH POSS -SHRA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS LOW CONF, BUT HAVE MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH
DRAINAGE WINDS BY EARLY FRIDAY FOR SNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER OVER COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A STORM SYSTEM LINGERS. EXPECT GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IF A THUNDERSTORM OR STRONGER SHOWER DEVELOPS. MARINE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHIFTING OVER THE INNER WATERS/OVER LAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES GRADUALLY RETURN TODAY WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS INCREASING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE SEAS BUILD, BECOMING ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ABATING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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