763
FXUS66 KMTR 230029
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
529 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 5 PM TO 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS AS UP TO 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
THIS REGION, WITH AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO REMAIN
RAIN SHOWERS AT THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF DAYTIME WARMING OCCURING
DUE TO MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST ESPECIALLY OVER MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
WARMING. HOWEVER, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NORTH BAY TO UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST.
PERIODS OF MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, POTENTIALLY STRONGER IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER, THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ONLY RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE AROUND LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND ALONG THE COAST ARE
LIKELY TO SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND DURING PEAK
HIGH TIDES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
CONDITIONS ARE VFR-MVFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. 24 HOUR SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS ARE COOLER WITH MAINLY
HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPS (HIGHER WATER VAPOR) WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ONGOING MVFR-IFR INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRYING FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR-MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CLEAR TO VFR LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO WEST 10 TO 12 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CLEAR TO VFR LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS, FRESH SWELL, AND STEEPER WIND WAVES. NORTHERLY
BREEZES EASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE SEAS
BUILD, BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ABATING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...MM
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