074
FXUS66 KMTR 230746
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1246 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND
- COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO FULL MOON AND THERMAL EXPANSION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1231 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT OF THE NEW WATER YEAR IS WINDING DOWN,
AFTER BRINGING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POCKETS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING BURST OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE 'INSIDE SLIDER'
TROUGH PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH PWATS FALLING FROM
AROUND 0.75" DURING THE DAY TODAY, TO BELOW 0.50" AFTER SUNSET. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 2500FT, UP TO 45 MPH WITH
LITTLE VERTICAL GRADIENT FORCING TO HELP TRANSLATE STRONGER WINDS
TO LOWER LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1231 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS.
PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE PNW FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, CONSENSUS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTER BEGINS TO
DIVERGE FROM THERE, BUT EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH SOME PLEASANT FALL DAYS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO LUNAR PHASE AND
THERMAL EXPANSION IS POSSIBLE AT NORMAL TROUBLE SPOTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 817 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE VFR-MVFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR WILL CONTINUE
INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG /IFR-LIFR/ TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRYING FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR-MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CLEAR TO VFR LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO WEST 10 TO 12 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CLEAR TO VFR LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, FRESH SWELL AND
STEEPER WIND WAVES. NORTHERLY BREEZES EASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. MODERATE SEAS BUILD, BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ABATING SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MRY
BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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