925
FXUS66 KMTR 231805
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1105 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND
- COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO FULL MOON AND THERMAL EXPANSION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FOGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PETALUMA VALLEY IN SONOMA COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THIS FOG IS FORECAST TO
LIFT/MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ELSEWHERE, A MIX OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST AS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS EXITS TO THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT
THE REGION AS WELL AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BAY AREA. NO
UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1231 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT OF THE NEW WATER YEAR IS WINDING DOWN,
AFTER BRINGING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POCKETS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING BURST OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE 'INSIDE SLIDER'
TROUGH PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH PWATS FALLING FROM
AROUND 0.75" DURING THE DAY TODAY, TO BELOW 0.50" AFTER SUNSET. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 2500FT, UP TO 45 MPH WITH
LITTLE VERTICAL GRADIENT FORCING TO HELP TRANSLATE STRONGER WINDS
TO LOWER LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1231 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS.
PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE PNW FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, CONSENSUS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTER BEGINS TO
DIVERGE FROM THERE, BUT EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH SOME PLEASANT FALL DAYS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO LUNAR PHASE AND
THERMAL EXPANSION IS POSSIBLE AT NORMAL TROUBLE SPOTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS MESSY THIS MORNING, DEPICTING A MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES BUT ALSO MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. YOU CAN SEE
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH, ERODING STRATUS AS IT
MOVES SOUTH BUT BEHIND IT CLOUDS SINK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODELS
AREN'T CAPTURING THIS THAT WELL SO OPTED TO KEEP THE GENERAL TRENDS
FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 20-21Z FOR MOST
SITES. THEN SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO THE REGION, LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE COULD BE AN EXCEPTION FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. BUT IT'LL HAVE TO COMPETE AGAINST
THE DRIER AIR AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW, SO OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS
CLEAR.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SFO; HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS TRYING TO SNEAK THEIR
WAY THROUGH AS SOME CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS AND BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS. OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE MORNING STRATUS HAS ERODED WITH
STRATOCU BLOSSOMING BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE US RIGHT AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SKIES
CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP KEEPING US VFR FOR THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING AND BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. NEAR
GALE FORCE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS, WITH STRONG GUSTS SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING BETWEEN 10 TO 13 FEET.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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