800
FXUS66 KMTR 241120
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
420 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
SUBSIDES LATE THIS MORNING
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK
- COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND THERMAL
EXPANSION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1038 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS IS
ONGOING TONIGHT, WITH THE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DROPPING MINRH
VALUES IN THE 20S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD BE
HIGHER FOR THIS AREA HAD WE NOT RECEIVED THE RECENT WETTING
RAINFALL. THE OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME SHOULD MOSTLY LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY
IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS IN SONOMA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY LATE THIS MORNING, WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN
STORE AREA WIDE ACROSS OUR CWA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1038 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
SUNDAY WILL ALMOST BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY FOR THE NORTH BAY AND
BAY AREA, WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SEEING TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER
FEW DEGREES. CONFIDENCE AND CONSENSUS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
POOR AFTER MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH TO OUR LATITUDE ON
MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS STRUGGLING WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
HOW ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE INTERACTS WITH THE FLATTENING
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN, ANY TROUGHING OR RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND LOW AMPLITUDE, WITH NO LARGE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS
OR PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NBM
SEEMS TO PICK UP ON WHAT THE CURRENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC HAS
DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN A PUSH OF OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE INFLUX OF DRY AND
WARM AIR INTO THE TERMINALS ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, ONSHORE
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO LACK OF CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT, A BAY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY
MORNING (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). BY THE AFTERNOON, A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE PREVAILS AND GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST POST-SUNSET.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT E-SE BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE (NW) UP TO 10 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. POST-SUNSET, LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH GUSTS. IN
RESPONSE, ROUGH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO MODERATE BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ505-509.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE
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