554
FXUS66 KMTR 241739
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1039 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 914 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, COOLING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
- COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND THERMAL
EXPANSION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE MAYACAMAS AND VACA
MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH MOUNT SAINT HELENA GUSTING TO 40 MPH CURRENTLY
(PEAKED AT 63 MPH AT 1:10 AM PDT). ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SALINAS VALLEY, SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1038 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS IS
ONGOING TONIGHT, WITH THE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DROPPING MINRH
VALUES IN THE 20S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD BE
HIGHER FOR THIS AREA HAD WE NOT RECEIVED THE RECENT WETTING
RAINFALL. THE OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME SHOULD MOSTLY LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY
IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS IN SONOMA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY LATE THIS MORNING, WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN
STORE AREA WIDE ACROSS OUR CWA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1038 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
SUNDAY WILL ALMOST BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY FOR THE NORTH BAY AND
BAY AREA, WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SEEING TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER
FEW DEGREES. CONFIDENCE AND CONSENSUS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
POOR AFTER MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH TO OUR LATITUDE ON
MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS STRUGGLING WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
HOW ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE INTERACTS WITH THE FLATTENING
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN, ANY TROUGHING OR RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND LOW AMPLITUDE, WITH NO LARGE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS
OR PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NBM
SEEMS TO PICK UP ON WHAT THE CURRENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC HAS
DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, AS
A UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACNW.
VICINITY OF SFO...QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE
WINDS RETURNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE FORECAST WILL BE ON REPEAT AS WE GO
FROM OFFSHORE WIND TO ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENINGS, WINDS WILL REVERT AND BECOME LIGHTLY OFFSHORE AGAIN.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH GUSTS. ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO MODERATE BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ505-509.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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