324
FXUS66 KMTR 250025
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
525 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 914 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, COOLING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
- COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND THERMAL
EXPANSION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF THE BAY AREA AND
NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S REGIONWIDE. ONCE THE
SUN SETS, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECTING UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL TO SEE FOG ACROSS THE
RUSSIAN RIVER AND PETALUMA VALLEYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
LACK OF OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THAT COOLING AS A CUT-OFF
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SIMILAR ON SUNDAY AS THEY ARE TODAY, GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 114 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MAINLY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH BAY MONDAY MORNING, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL BY A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE
WEST COAST DEEPENS. COOLER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS
LOWERED SINCE YESTERDAY'S WRITING. BE SURE TO STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM TRUSTED SOURCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
24 HOUR TRENDS ARE WARMER AND DRIER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
EXTENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. DRIER AIR AND A CLEAR SKY /VFR/
TONIGHT TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RADIATIVE COOLING WHICH MAY
FORM A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG /IFR-LIFR/ EARLY SUNDAY. COOL AIR
DRAINAGE WINDS I.E. LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, THERMALLY SUPPORTED WITH LAND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
COOLER THAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (MID 60S, WELL ABOVE OCTOBER
NORMALS). BUOY AIR TEMPS ARE BARELY COOLER THAN SEA SURFACE TEMPS,
AND COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT, HOWEVER IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR MARITIME LOW CLOUDS TO
FORM DEPENDING IF COMBINED COOLING (MAINLY FROM RADIATIVE COOLING)
CAN REACH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. COOL AIR DRAINAGE BREEZES MAY
HELP OR MAY ULTIMATELY MOVE LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM LAND AND MIX THE
LOW CLOUDS OUT. 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY VFR.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEST WIND 10 KNOTS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS DECREASING AND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH GUSTS. ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO MODERATE BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ505-509.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...KR
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