693
FXUS66 KMTR 252152
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
252 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE FOR BAYSHORE AND PACIFIC
COAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
- COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1226 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM (LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION). AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW TO
MID-70S FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, EXPECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS
AND THE SONOMA COUNTY COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
REST OF THE REGION EXPECTING UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME 5-10 DEGREES ON MONDAY AS A COOLER AIR
MASS SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1226 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS THE REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW TO TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT ISN'T UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT WE SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE SO DON'T CANCEL YOUR TICK-OR-TREATING PLANS YET!
AGAIN, THE MOST PRESSING THREAT THIS WEEK WILL BE MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BAYSHORE LOCATIONS OF THE SAN
PABLO, SAN FRANCISCO, AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE PACIFIC COAST GETS
ADDED TO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY BEGINNING MONDAY AS WE ARE
EXPECTING UP TO 1.9 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THIS IS
DUE TO THERMAL EXPANSION OF THE WARM WATERS GENERATED BY EL NINO
AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ANOTHER VFR DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION, WITH SATELLITE SHOWING
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER US. TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE PACNW WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO TAKE HOLD OF MUCH OF THE
REGION AND PERHAPS INTERACT WITH THE MARINE LAYER. RIGHT NOW THE
MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE ANY MARINE LAYER ACTION OR STRATUS SEEM TO
BE AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO/SAN MATEO PENINSULA AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, SO OPTED TO KEEP THE
HINT OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST RATHER THAN SOCKING AREAS IN.
SHOULD WE SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP, THE TIMING IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 6Z-
15Z WITH CLOUDS LIFTING OR MIXING OUT BY THE LATE MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, PEAKING BETWEEN 10-15 KT, BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN
10 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE IS SIGNAL
FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE SFO REGION, RIGHT NOW MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP IT WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. KEPT
THE HINT OF MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF AS A RESULT, WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO
VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A STRONG PUSH OF
ONSHORE WINDS IS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE WHERE WE COULD SEE 15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THE SIGNAL FOR SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE REGION BUT NOT FULLY SOCKING US IN. OPTED TO KEEP
THE SCT MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND.
IT COULD BE HAVE A FEW HOURS OF BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT,
WITH SKIES MIXING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
EARLY THIS WEEK. STRONG GUSTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS NEAR POINT SUR AND MONTEREY BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME ISOLATED NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
CONTINUE FOR OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT HOLD THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AND BUILD TO MODERATE 4 TO 6 FT FOR MONDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ505-509.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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