562
FXUS66 KMTR 260043
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
543 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE FOR BAYSHORE AND PACIFIC
COAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
- COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1226 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM (LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION). AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW TO
MID-70S FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, EXPECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS
AND THE SONOMA COUNTY COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
REST OF THE REGION EXPECTING UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME 5-10 DEGREES ON MONDAY AS A COOLER AIR
MASS SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1226 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS THE REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW TO TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT ISN'T UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT WE SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE SO DON'T CANCEL YOUR TICK-OR-TREATING PLANS YET!
AGAIN, THE MOST PRESSING THREAT THIS WEEK WILL BE MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BAYSHORE LOCATIONS OF THE SAN
PABLO, SAN FRANCISCO, AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE PACIFIC COAST GETS
ADDED TO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY BEGINNING MONDAY AS WE ARE
EXPECTING UP TO 1.9 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THIS IS
DUE TO THERMAL EXPANSION OF THE WARM WATERS GENERATED BY EL NINO
AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
IT'S VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE ONSHORE WITH THE
SFO-SAC PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST RECENTLY 0.5 MB. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO FAR THERE'S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. AFTER THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT, RADIATIVE COOLING WILL STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. IT'S
A COMPLEX CEILING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUDS /MVFR-IFR/ LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. KSJC AND KLVK 00Z TAFS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE NO LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING; A CHALLENGING FORECAST, IT'S UNKNOWN HOW MUCH
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE, AND HOW FAR INLAND
LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH. GREATER CONFIDENCE IT'LL BE MAINLY VFR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH A WEST WIND DIMINISHING THROUGH
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPO LOW CLOUDS /MVFR/
08Z-12Z THEN PREVAILING TO 21Z MONDAY. WEST WIND INCREASING TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
/MVFR/ DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. VFR IS FORECAST LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
EARLY THIS WEEK. STRONG GUSTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS NEAR POINT SUR AND MONTEREY BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME ISOLATED NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
CONTINUE FOR OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT HOLD THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AND BUILD TO MODERATE 4 TO 6 FT FOR MONDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ505-509.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...KR
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