103
FXUS66 KMTR 262028
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
128 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE FOR BAYSHORE AND PACIFIC
COAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK
- COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 AM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. EXPECT
CHILLIER DAYS AND NIGHTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TIDE OCCURRING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS ALONG THE BAY SHORELINE OR ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. OBEY ALL ROAD
CLOSURES/ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA, THE
BERKELEY-SAN LEANDRO HILLS, AND THE CHITTENDEN PASS BETWEEN
WATSONVILLE AND HOLLISTER. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED AS THE MODEL OUTPUT IS A LOT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
STRATUS COVERAGE THAN THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST. IN ANY CASE, STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS A CUT-OFF LOW TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS BRINGING WET WEATHER INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH COAST, BUT DOWN IN THE BAY AREA THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO THE BAYS, UP TO
THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY, AND
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG
THE COAST, THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES, AND AT THE RIDGELINES.
EXPECT GUSTS IN THESE AREAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE PASSING LOW CREATES AN ELEVATED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SURGE FROM THERMAL
EXPANSION EFFECTS BRINGS THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE BAYSHORE AT THE SAN PABLO, SAN FRANCISCO, AND MONTEREY BAYS, AND
THE PACIFIC COAST, AT HIGH TIDE TODAY. AT THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL
GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1.6 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.4 FT MLLW)
AT 11:39 AM MONDAY 10/26, INCLUDING AROUND 1.0 FT OF SURGE RESIDUAL
PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO IMPACTS FROM EL NINO.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY
OUTLOOK. BY TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA WILL DIG DOWN AND BRING MORE TROUGHING INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION, WHILE A SECOND CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND
MIGRATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE TROUGHING
PATTERN. OVER THE SAME TIMEFRAME, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC MIGRATES EASTWARDS AND MERGES WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FURTHERING THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE STATE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON SOME FORM
OF TROUGHING PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES ENTERING THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IN
THE NORTH BAY FOR HALLOWEEN HAS DECREASED, BUT REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AND MIGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
CENTRAL COAST, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MAKES FOR
A DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION, AS THE FRINGES OF A MOISTURE PLUME
CAN MAKE FOR SOME HIGHLY DEFINED GRADIENTS WHERE SHIFTS OF THE
FORECAST TRACK ON THE ORDER OF 10 MILES CAN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
THE FINAL OUTCOME. TO GIVE ONE EXAMPLE OF THE KIND OF VARIABILITY
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HERE, LET'S LOOK AT THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECASTS FOR THE MONTEREY AIRPORT. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FOR
THE 48HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING 5 AM PDT SATURDAY THE 31ST AND ENDING
4 AM PST MONDAY THE 2ND (NOTE THE TIME CHANGE, AS THIS PERIOD
INCLUDES THE "FALL BACK" FROM DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME), THERE IS A
50% PROBABILITY THAT THE RAINFALL TOTAL FALLS BETWEEN 0.0 AND 0.6
INCHES, AND AN 80% PROBABILITY THAT THE TOTAL FALLS BETWEEN 0.0
AND 1.6 INCHES. IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHETHER
PEOPLE'S HALLOWEEN PLANS WILL NEED TO TAKE RAIN INTO ACCOUNT, SO
KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES. IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH,
ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT AND LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THAT AN
ACTIVE PATTERN COULD REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER...
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS BAYSHORE LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE SAN PABLO, SAN FRANCISCO, AND MONTEREY BAYS AND THE PACIFIC
COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE,
HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1.8 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.6 FT MLLW) AT
12:15 PM TUESDAY 10/27, 1.9 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.7 FT MLLW) AT 12:56
PM WEDNESDAY 10/28, 1.7 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.5 FT MLLW) AT 01:43 PM
THURSDAY 10/29, 1.4 FT ABOVE NORMAL (7.2 FT MLLW) AT 2:39 PM ON
FRIDAY 10/30, AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL (6.8 FT MLLW) AT 3:44 PM ON
SATURDAY 10/31, INCLUDING AROUND 1.0 FT OF SURGE RESIDUAL PARTIALLY
ATTRIBUTED TO IMPACTS FROM EL NINO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME
STRATOCU CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THE NORTH BAY. SITES ARE STILL
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY, SO EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WE DID LAST NIGHT. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST, THE QUESTION BEING IF WE GET A ROUND OF
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE MIX OF VFR
AND MVRF CIGS, BUT LOW TO MODERATE FOR KSTS STAYING VFR TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY EASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE BECOMING
CEILING HEIGHTS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, MODELS FLIRT MVFR CIGS AROUND THE
VICINITY OF SFO. GIVEN THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE, EXPECT
THE FORECAST TO BE ON REPEAT TONIGHT. IF THAT IS THE CASE, WE MAY
SEE BKN MVFR CIGS FROM 12-16Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER THAT.
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS. GUSTS LOOK TO BE PEAK BETWEEN 18-22KT AROUND THE BAY, BEFORE
DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING. MUCH LIKE THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE,
MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS FLIRTING AROUND THE BAY. KEPT THE TREND OF
THEM ARRIVING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CLEARING OUT AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 AM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GENTLE BREEZES BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. STRONG GUSTS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR
POINT SUR AND MONTEREY BAY. THESE STRONG GUSTS GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR POINT REYES BY TUESDAY.
ISOLATED NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE COASTAL JET
REGIONS OF POINT SUR AND POINT REYES. IN RESPONSE, MODERATE SEAS
BRIEFLY BUILD TO ROUGH AROUND 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. MODERATE WIND DRIVEN SEAS
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-505-
506-508-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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