825
FXUS66 KMTR 262128
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
228 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
- COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE BY BAYSHORE AND PACIFIC COAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WORST FLOODING ALONG BAYSHORE MARIN
COUNTY.
- SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEK
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 226 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
SEASONAL TO SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WEST COAST.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH MORNING
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
SHORT TERM, EXPECT MORE CLASSIC FALL WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH
GUSTIER ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WINDS PEAK
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES
(ALTAMONT PASS, SALINAS VALLEY, SAN BRUNO GAP - TO NAME A FEW).
WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TUESDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARD MONDAY/TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO/SAN PABLO BAY SHORELINES
AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS BROUGHT TO
YOU BY A COMBINATION OF THE FULL MOON (10/26) AND THERMAL EXPANSION
DUE TO WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES ON TOP OF OUR TYPICAL TIDAL
PATTERN. HIGH TIDES PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH UP TO 2.1 FT OF
INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE FELT ALONG LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF BAYSHORE MARIN COUNTY WHERE
NUMEROUS FLOODING REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED. IF YOU LIVE IN
A LOW-LYING AREA PRONE TO FLOODING ALONG THE BAY OR PACIFIC COAST,
MAKE SURE TO HAVE ALL FLOOD PREPARATIONS IN PLACE BEFORE HIGH TIDE
TOMORROW (12:15 PM). IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROAD, TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN. YOU DON'T KNOW HOW DEEP FLOOD WATERS ARE, HOW FAST A
CURRENT MAY BE, OR IF THE ROAD IS STRUCTURALLY SOUND BENEATH THE
WATER. COASTAL FLOODING IS SET TO PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH TIDAL HEIGHTS
DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM (FOR MORE IN DEPTH DISCUSSION SEE
THE LONG TERM FORECAST).
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 226 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
TROUGHING GENERALLY PERSISTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONAL TO
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. DIURNALLY GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR FAVORED
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK WITH STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHILE COASTAL AREAS LINGER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY WE SEE THE PROMISED FURTHER COOLDOWN WITH INTERIOR LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S AND MOST COASTAL AREAS LINGERING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK WITH CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEPER TROUGH ARRIVES. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT, FORTUNATELY, THE BULK OF THE
RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT'S NOT
TO SAY WE WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST BUT TOTALS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
URBAN AREAS (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH). FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AND THE GABILAN RANGE, LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTING
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. ALL TOGETHER, THE CLASSIC
FALL WEATHER SHOULD LEND ITSELF A GHOSTLY AMBIANCE FOR ANYONE
PARTAKING IN ANY HAUNTED/SPOOKTACULAR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS BAYSHORE LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE SAN PABLO, SAN FRANCISCO, AND MONTEREY BAYS AND THE PACIFIC
COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WHILE TIDAL HEIGHTS PEAK
TUESDAY, HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SAN
FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1.9 FT ABOVE
NORMAL (7.7 FT MLLW) AT 12:56 PM WEDNESDAY 10/28, 1.7 FT ABOVE
NORMAL (7.5 FT MLLW) AT 01:43 PM THURSDAY 10/29, 1.4 FT ABOVE NORMAL
(7.2 FT MLLW) AT 2:39 PM ON FRIDAY 10/30, AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
(6.8 FT MLLW) AT 3:44 PM ON SATURDAY 10/31, INCLUDING AROUND 1.0 FT
OF SURGE RESIDUAL PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO IMPACTS FROM EL NINO.
CURRENTLY, TIDAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE THE FORECAST WITH THE
FORECAST HEIGHTS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY BEING INCREASED. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO MID TO LATE WEEK WE MAY SEE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS
EXTENDED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (NECESSITATING THE EXTENSION OF THE
PRODUCT). EXPECT THE WORST FLOODING TO CONTINUE IN LOW-LYING
BAYSHORE LOCATIONS OF MARIN COUNTY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME
STRATOCU CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THE NORTH BAY. SITES ARE STILL
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY, SO EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WE DID LAST NIGHT. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST, THE QUESTION BEING IF WE GET A ROUND OF
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE MIX OF VFR
AND MVRF CIGS, BUT LOW TO MODERATE FOR KSTS STAYING VFR TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY EASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE BECOMING
CEILING HEIGHTS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, MODELS FLIRT MVFR CIGS AROUND THE
VICINITY OF SFO. GIVEN THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE, EXPECT
THE FORECAST TO BE ON REPEAT TONIGHT. IF THAT IS THE CASE, WE MAY
SEE BKN MVFR CIGS FROM 12-16Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER THAT.
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS. GUSTS LOOK TO BE PEAK BETWEEN 18-22KT AROUND THE BAY, BEFORE
DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING. MUCH LIKE THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE,
MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS FLIRTING AROUND THE BAY. KEPT THE TREND OF
THEM ARRIVING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CLEARING OUT AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 AM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GENTLE BREEZES BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. STRONG GUSTS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR
POINT SUR AND MONTEREY BAY. THESE STRONG GUSTS GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR POINT REYES BY TUESDAY.
ISOLATED NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE COASTAL JET
REGIONS OF POINT SUR AND POINT REYES. IN RESPONSE, MODERATE SEAS
BRIEFLY BUILD TO ROUGH AROUND 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. MODERATE WIND DRIVEN SEAS
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-505-
506-508-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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