264  
AXNT20 KNHC 190529  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
129 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0500 UTC.  
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE AT 19/0300 UTC IS NEAR  
30.4N 27.9W. JOYCE IS MOVING SSW, OR 200 DEGREES, 07 KNOTS. THE  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. THIS  
IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER ABOUT JOYCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE  
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO  
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 20N  
SOUTHWARD, PARTIALLY IN AFRICA AND PARTIALLY IN THE OCEAN. THE  
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION IS IN AFRICA.  
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 19N  
SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN  
57W AND 63W.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD. WIDELY  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 05N TO  
12N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA  
NEAR 11N14W, TO 09N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N18W TO 07N25W,  
AND TO 08N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS  
ARE WITHIN 190 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM  
09N14W 07N19W, 06N27W, 06N38W, TO 11N51W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, ACROSS THE N  
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL  
PLAINS OF SE LOUISIANA AND S MISSISSIPPI, AND FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO,  
SUPPORTING LIGHT BREEZES AND MINIMAL SEAS. A SURFACE TROUGH, THAT  
IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH WED, INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEN DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, FROM NW  
CUBA TO E SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND  
84W.  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS IN CLUSTERS ARE FROM 13N  
SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD, IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND  
FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N74W, TO PANAMA NEAR 09N80W,  
AND BEYOND NW COSTA RICA. MAXIMO  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH, THAT IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA,  
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE, THAT IS  
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TONIGHT, WILL MOVE INTO  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TONIGHT, THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND PASS TO THE WEST OF  
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE, THAT IS  
BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL  
BAHAMAS, WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING  
SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT POST-  
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER,  
THAT IS ABOUT 160 NM TO THE SSW OF BERMUDA, TO THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W, TO 28N66W,  
AND TO 23N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS  
COVER THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH, REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS,  
WILL SHIFT NW SLOWLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS THE  
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRAG AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL  
TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE  
LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 31N67W ON FRIDAY EVENING, AND THEN DRIFT W  
AND WEAKEN SLOWLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MT  
 
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