139  
WTNT22 KNHC 200249  
TCMAT2  
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021  
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021  
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z  
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM  
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT  
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.  
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.  
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL  
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.  
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z  
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W  
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W  
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.  
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.  
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W  
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.  
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.  
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W  
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.  
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.  
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W  
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.  
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.  
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W  
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.  
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.  
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W  
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.  
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM  
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY  
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W  
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W  
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.  
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.1W  
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
 
 
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