968
WTNT43 KNHC 281453
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023
1100 AM AST THU SEP 28 2023
VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER HAS EMERGED TO THE NORTHWEST OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB BOTH INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THUS, ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM RINA.
THE RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE BUT DID NOT CAPTURE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
CENTER. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET
AT 35 KT. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT SHEAR, IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY AND UNCERTAIN INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE, SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE HCCA SOLUTION. RINA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
OF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS DO INDICATE A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COMPARED TO THE NHC
FORECAST.
RINA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, WITH AN INITIAL FORWARD SPEED
NEAR 9 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE WESTWARD
TODAY AND CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA AND TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BASED
ON THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.4N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.5N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.2N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 19.6N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 19.9N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.4N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 21.1N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 23.9N 56.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 26.2N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI
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