704
WTNT43 KNHC 291450
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 29 2023
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, RINA'S CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED WITH LESS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NOTED IN THE GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HELD STEADY AT 45 KT,
WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE LOWER AROUND 35 TO 40 KT. BASED
ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT.
RINA'S CURRENT MOTION REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME, MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 335/5 KT. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS
RINA MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN
NEARBY TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RINA WILL START TO MAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHIFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS THESE TRENDS AND IS ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS
AIDS. THE ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE GFS, WHICH SHOWS MORE OF AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN RINA AND PHILIPPE.
THE EXPOSED CENTER OF RINA INDICATES A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE) IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
INTENSITY IS HELD STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW AS IT BEGINS THAT TURN TO THE NORTH AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY
DAY 5. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN
SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS WEAKENING
TREND, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 19.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER A. REINHART/B. REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page