604
WTNT43 KNHC 301455
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2023
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RINA REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OFF WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING, AND ASCAT JUST CAME IN WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
JUST ABOVE 35 KT, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT.
STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
IN 2-3 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN BEFORE,
SHOWING REMNANT LOW STATUS AS THE WEEKEND CLOSES.
RINA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, NOW AT 10 KT. THE STORM
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
PHILIPPE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER, A WEAKENED RINA
IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SUBTROPICS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FORECAST, WITH NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 21.2N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 22.1N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 23.5N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 25.0N 55.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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