500
WTNT43 KNHC 012039
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023
500 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2023
RINA IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ITS ASSOCIATED SHEARED CONVECTION
COLLAPSED A FEW HOURS AGO, AND THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE DEFINITION BASED ON RECENT GOES DERIVED MOTION
WIND (DMW) VECTORS. ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF RINA IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD (325/14 KT), BUT
THE SHALLOW CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON WHILE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD, AND RINA
IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN INTO A TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC
TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 26.2N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.2N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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