681
WTPZ41 KNHC 080833
TCDEP1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2023
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY WITH INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER.
STILL, THERE'S NOT MUCH CURVATURE TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
ALTHOUGH IT IS CLOSER THAN YESTERDAY. SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
25 KT, CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER SHIP DATA.
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION SINCE
THERE HASN'T BEEN A LOT OF IN SITU OR MICROWAVE DATA OVERNIGHT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATE TODAY BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND TROPICAL STORM LIDIA TO ITS WEST.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE GFS SEEMS
UNREALISTICALLY FAST WITH LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS GIVEN THE
FLOW REGIME. ONLY A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, NEAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE DISTURBANCE HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY OVER VERY WARM WATERS
IN MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY COME
DOWN, HOWEVER, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE GFS-BASED
GUIDANCE HAVING TOO FAST OF A FORWARD SPEED, WHICH LIMITS THE
SYSTEM'S TIME OVER WATER, RATHER THAN A CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM
ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THOUGH
THIS PREDICTION IS NOW ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 14.5N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 08/1800Z 15.3N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.9N 101.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 19.0N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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