608
WTPZ31 KNHC 081141
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2023
..DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 100.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (8 KM/H). A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR THE DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP1.SHTML
RAINFALL: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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