389
WTPZ41 KNHC 090246
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 08 2023
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
MAX. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH WAS FURTHER
CONFIRMED BY RECENT AMSR-2 AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH WAS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED
OVER A LARGE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY, HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT IN A CONCENTRATED AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED, AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 35 KT.
MAX IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 340/5 KT. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCES ARE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
STORM'S EAST, AND TROPICAL STORM LIDIA TO ITS WEST. MAX IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION, WITH GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERING IN THE FORWARD SPEED. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING AND
LANDFALL LOCATION, TROPICAL STORM IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FAR
FROM THE LANDFALL LOCATION. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF THE TVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS, AND IT IS SLIGHTLY WEST
OF THE PRIOR FORECAST.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IN MEXICO. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-24 H, BUT WITH LIMITED TIME
BEFORE LANDFALL AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM AT LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, MAX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION WITH THE
TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORM
DISSIPATES AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ON TUESDAY. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST AND IS ON
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MAX IS FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON MONDAY WHERE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
WESTERN OAXACA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 16.3N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.8N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.6N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BROWN
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