025
WTPZ41 KNHC 090845
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
400 AM CDT MON OCT 09 2023
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED,
WITH A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED
BANDING FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT, SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE MAX
MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY. RAPID WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.
MAX HAS TURNED NORTHWARD OR 010/5 KT THIS MORNING, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE ON THIS ADVISORY IS THAT THE LANDFALL OF MAX IS EXPECTED TO
BE SOONER AND FARTHER EAST THAN BEFORE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAX SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MAX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TODAY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WHERE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.5N 101.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page