697
WTPZ41 KNHC 091442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 09 2023
MAX HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN
MEXICO. THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE
CENTER, WITH AN EARLIER AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL
CYAN RING ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL, SUGGESTING FORMATIVE INNER-CORE
FEATURES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM
TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 50
KT AT 12 UTC, AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THIS VALUE ALSO IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST UW CIMSS D-PRINT ESTIMATE.
WHILE NOT SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BELOW, MAX COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE
MORE, AND BE NEAR ITS MAX INTENSITY AT LANDFALL, SOMETIME IN THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS. HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS QUICKLY DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO, WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY BY TOMORROW.
MAX APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THIS
MORNING, ESTIMATED AT 030/4 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE STORM MOVES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM
MOVES INLAND, THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL QUICKLY BECOME DIFFICULT
TO TRACK, THOUGH ITS MID-LEVEL REMAINS AND LARGER MOISTURE PLUME
SHOULD PUSH FURTHER INLAND INTO MEXICO, EVEN AFTER THE STORM
DISSIPATES BY EARLY ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MAX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TODAY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WHERE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 17.1N 101.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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