955
WTPZ41 KNHC 092037
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
400 PM CDT MON OCT 09 2023
MAX IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1800 UTC JUST TO THE
WEST OF PUERTO VICENTE GUERRERO IN THE MEXICAN PROVENCE OF GUERRERO.
DATA RECEIVED FROM THE A MEXICAN SURFACE OBSERVING SITE AT THAT
LOCATION JUST AFTER THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY SUGGESTED THE
TROPICAL STORM MIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INITIALLY
ASSESSED, REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THUS, THE 18 UTC WORKING BEST TRACK
INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT WITH A 991 MB PRESSURE. SINCE THAT
TIME, THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO DEGRADE, LIKELY AS THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BE DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THUS, SOME WEAKENING IS ASSUMED
SINCE THAT TIME WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 50 KT.
FURTHER RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND, AND BY THIS TIME TOMORROW MAX IS LIKELY TO BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING POLEWARD
WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION STILL APPEARS TO BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 030/5 KT.
THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MAX DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
QUICKLY LOSE THE SYSTEM BEYOND 12 H, AND THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST
IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PRIOR ONE. EVEN AS MAX DISSIPATES, ITS
MID-LEVEL REMAINS AND LARGER MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE RAINFALL, LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES PUSHING INTO INLAND MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MAX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM MAX WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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