216
WTNT44 KNHC 151443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 15 2023
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT SEAN HAS REGAINED CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS DISPLACED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST.
THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) FROM TAFB IS T2.0/30 KT,
WITH THE TREND OF THE DATA-T NUMBERS CONTINUING TO FALL. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. GIVEN THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND LOWERING DATA-T DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
SEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS AS IT
REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO BECOME LESS PERSISTENT AND LOSE
ORGANIZATION. AS THE SYSTEM DECAYS, SEAN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW, WHICH COULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS, ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, THAT SEAN
REMAINS A DEPRESSION UNTIL THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
290/9 KT. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW, A
TURN MORE WESTWARD IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE
CORRECTED AND SIMPLE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 17.7N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.0N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 18.2N 50.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 18.5N 53.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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