602
WTPZ43 KNHC 221448
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2023
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (91E) THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING HAS NOW
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING AND
CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER, AND ASCAT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5/35 KT, BUT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE LOWER AT 30 KT SINCE THE ASCAT
PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGH.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT 2 KT. A CONTINUED SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. BEYOND A FEW DAYS, THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MAKING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
AIDS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT TIME, AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING, AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM DECOUPLING OR DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.2N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.8N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 11.8N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 12.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 13.4N 97.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 13.7N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 13.9N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BUCCI
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