905
WTPZ43 KNHC 222041
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2023
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
TROPICAL STORM OTIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST
EAST OF AN INCREASING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE. WITH THIS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 35 KT, WHICH IS BELOW THE 3.0/45 KT
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
OTIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 4 KT. A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN A
LIGHT STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. BY MIDWEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MAKING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS AND A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE STORM REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT TIME, AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING, AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM DECOUPLING OR DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 11.6N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 12.7N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 13.5N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 13.9N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 14.2N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 14.5N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 14.9N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BUCCI
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