932
WTNT45 KNHC 242041
TCDAT5
HURRICANE TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
500 PM AST TUE OCT 24 2023
THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
TAMMY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE CENTER. AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE
SATELLITE PASS AT 1657 UTC SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
WHILE A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN
HURRICANE STRENGTH, THE RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY CANNOT
CAPTURE THE PEAK WINDS IN TAMMY'S SMALL INNER CORE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT, CLOSEST TO THE TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, THOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS TAMMY COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
WITHIN A DAY OR SO WHEN THE HURRICANE ENTERS A REGION OF ENHANCED
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, DRY MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE TAMMY TO STEADILY WEAKEN.
GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HURRICANE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A
GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 H, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION.
TAMMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KT. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHWARD
IN A DAY OR SO. BY THURSDAY, TAMMY SHOULD BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. A
GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND FORWARD SPEED IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST HAS
BEEN SLOWED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 24.6N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 25.6N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 27.5N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.2N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 31.1N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z 31.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1800Z 32.0N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1800Z 32.0N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER BUCCI
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