822
WTPZ43 KNHC 242056
TCDEP3
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2023
OTIS HAS UNDERGONE VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION TODAY. AN EYE BECAME
APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ONLY A FEW HOURS AGO, EMBEDDED
IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
PENETRATED THE EYE AROUND 1900 UTC AND AGAIN AROUND 2000 UTC, AND
FOUND THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 110 KT
OVER A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER, WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
REMARKABLY DROPPED AROUND 10 MB FROM THE FIRST TO THE SECOND CENTER
FIX. THE INTENSITY OF OTIS IS WELL ABOVE THE DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES, AND AGAIN UNDERSCORES THE VALUE OF AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE
IN MONITORING HURRICANES.
OTIS SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT
THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG, WITH SSTS
NEAR 30 DEG C. BASED ON THE OBSERVED CHANGES, THE SHORT-TERM
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST TO BE AT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON ABOUT THE SAME HEADING, OR AROUND 330/7
KT. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, OTIS SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OTIS IS FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
2. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
3. HEAVY RAINS FROM OTIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THIS WEEK. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 15.3N 99.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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