018
WTPZ43 KNHC 242356
TCDEP3
HURRICANE OTIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2023
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF OTIS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE VERY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS CONTINUED, AND THE
LATEST DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST PEAK IS UPDATED TO 140 KT, CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH, SINCE THE
ENVIRONMENT ISN'T FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF THIS EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION STOPPING. THIS IS
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, AND ALL PREPARATIONS FOR OTIS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECAST ON THIS
ADVISORY, AND THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OTIS IS FORECAST TO BE A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
2. A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
3. HEAVY RAINS FROM OTIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THIS WEEK. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0000Z 15.7N 99.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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