603
WTPZ43 KNHC 250847
TCDEP3
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
400 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2023
SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THAT OTIS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TO NEAR
THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS WERE AROUND T7.0 (140 KT) AROUND 04-05Z WHILE RAW
OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBERS WERE IN THE T7.2 TO T7.6 RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT
01-05Z. BASED ON THAT DATA, OTIS IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL
AROUND 0625 UTC AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 145
KT. THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVED ONSHORE IN THE GREATER ACAPULCO
AREA. NOW THAT THE CENTER OF OTIS HAS MOVED INLAND, WEAKENING HAS
BEGUN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS OTIS MOVES OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, HOWEVER
DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THIS MORNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY
TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION
OF OTIS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT.
A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF OTIS AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS TONIGHT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR THE CORE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
2. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
3. HEAVY RAINS FROM OTIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 100.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.2N 100.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0600Z 19.2N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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