548
WTPZ43 KNHC 251500
TCDEP3
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2023
THE CENTER OF OTIS CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND, AND ASSUMING A
TYPICAL OVERLAND DECAY RATE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
REDUCED TO 70 KT. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. OTIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO TODAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
TONIGHT.
OTIS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 345/9 KT. A RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF OTIS AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURING INLAND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE CENTER OF OTIS.
3. HEAVY RAINS FROM OTIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 18.2N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 26/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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