853
WTNT45 KNHC 282037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
500 PM AST SAT OCT 28 2023
AS ANTICIPATED, TROPICAL STORM TAMMY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TODAY.
THE CONVECTION HAS WANED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. CURRENT
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD, AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS
A REDUCTION OF TAMMY'S INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PRIOR
NHC FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY RETURN EPISODICALLY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT A COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TAMMY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE PRIOR FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
AFTER ACCELERATING EARLIER THIS MORNING, TAMMY IS NOW MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD AT 90/13 KT. BEGINNING TONIGHT, THE TROPICAL STORM
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TAMMY AND
ITS REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PRIOR ADVISORY AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
PRIOR NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 33.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 33.0N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.8N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0600Z 27.4N 46.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 47.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE
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