502
WTPZ44 KNHC 282055
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 28 2023
THE VERY BUSY OCTOBER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT INVEST 92E HAS RE-FORMED
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST NEAR THE CENTER WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AS INDICATED BY ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER
AMBIGUITIES FROM 1520Z, WITH A SMALL CLOSED LOW SHOWN. WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB, THIS IS INDICATIVE OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION, AND THUS THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE NON
RAIN-INFLATED SCATTEROMETER MAX WINDS OF ABOUT THAT VALUE.
THERE'S BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST DAY
OR SO, AND NONE IS REALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE BIG QUESTION
IS HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LAND BEFORE RIDGING REBUILDS AFTER
THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE
SYSTEM QUITE CLOSE TO GUATEMALA OR EL SALVADOR BEFORE BEING SHUNTED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND, SO THIS WILL BE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AS ONLY A ONE OR TWO KT
SPEED DIFFERENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HAVE LARGE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY LANDFALL CHANCES.
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE OVER WARM WATERS IN LIGHT OR MODERATE SHEAR
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN THIS PATTERN FOR 2-3 DAYS, AND THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND, ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AROUND 72 H AND BEYOND, A MIX OF LAND INTERACTION AND A
SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THIS IS SHOWN
BELOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 10.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 10.7N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 10.9N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 11.6N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 12.3N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 13.0N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 11.3N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 9.5N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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