343
WTPZ44 KNHC 290242
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 28 2023
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT IMPROVED THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND IS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE
DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE EARLIER TODAY. BASED ON THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA, CURRENT STRUCTURE, AND A T2.0 SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, AND
LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM
MEANDERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS AGREE IN PRINCIPLE
ON THIS SCENARIO, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE THE CYCLONE WILL GET
TO THE COAST IN 60-72 H AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MOVE INLAND.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, INTERESTS IN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES, AS ONLY SMALL
TRACK CHANGES COULD RESULT IN GREATER LAND IMPACTS. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM LAND. THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND
THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION, ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED, THE 28-29 DEG C WATERS AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION IN 24-48 H WITHIN A
WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS, AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSEST TO THE GFS AND HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS (HCCA). LATER IN THE PERIOD, INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING,
ALTHOUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MORE DEPENDENT ON THE
FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 10.6N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 10.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 11.5N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 12.1N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 12.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 12.9N 89.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 10.5N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 9.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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