397
WTNT45 KNHC 290243
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 28 2023
TAMMY'S SECOND TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS NEAR ITS END.
WHILE SOME SHEARED PUFFS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
RE-FORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED
CIRCULATION CENTER, THIS ACTIVITY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO
MAINTAIN TAMMY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR NOW, ADVISORIES WILL BE
CONTINUED IN THE EVENT THAT THERE COULD BE ONE FINAL NOCTURNAL BURST
OF DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. IN THE MEAN TIME,
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SUGGEST SOME
CONTINUED SPIN DOWN FROM THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KT THIS ADVISORY. IF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT
RETURN SOON, TAMMY COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS SOON AS
OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE STORM SUCCUMBS
TO THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE HIGH SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
ENVIRONMENT.
TAMMY IS BEGINNING TO LOSE LATITUDE, WITH THE ESTIMATED MOTION NOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 105/15 KT. OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, TAMMY OR ITS
REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE PRIMARILY STEERED CLOCKWISE AROUND AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE STORM'S NORTH AND WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A FURTHER TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD BEFORE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN A BIT FASTER THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST, BUT
LIES CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS TVCN AND HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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