242
WTPZ44 KNHC 290834
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 29 2023
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CIRCULATION
APPEARS ELONGATED EAST-WEST AND DEEP CONVECTION IS PATCHY AND
LACKING BANDING FEATURES. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY, BUT STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND SINCE IT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY,
BUT OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A SLOW PACE LATER TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, TAKING THE
SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. AFTER
THAT TIME, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REVERSE ITS
COURSE AND HEAD SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THE HCCA AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW SINCE THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
THE DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA OR REMAINS OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY, ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY TODAY. HOWEVER, MORE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SSTS AND IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT IS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION, AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
SHOULD END THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND PROMOTE A
WEAKENING TREND. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST, AND THIS ONE LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING EL SALVADOR,
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR, AND TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 11.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 11.3N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 11.6N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.9N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 12.4N 91.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 12.7N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 12.3N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 11.0N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 9.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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