071
WTPZ44 KNHC 291450
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 29 2023
THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING,
WITH A CURVED BAND SEEMING TO WRAP AROUND THE APPARENT CENTER.
WHILE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SHOWED MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS WITHIN
THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE, IT SEEMS LIKE THE SYSTEM IS
CONSOLIDATING NOW NEAR A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THERE HASN'T BEEN A LOT OF NET MOVEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION RECENTLY. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A SLOW
PACE LATER TODAY AS IT BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY TAKE THE SYSTEM NEAR THE COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR OR GUATEMALA LATER ON TUESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
UNCHANGED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO, FORCING THE CYCLONE TO REVERSE ITS COURSE
AND HEAD SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
AGAIN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT LONG RANGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW SINCE
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA OR REMAINS OFFSHORE.
IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING, THEN SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSUMING A CENTRAL CORE CAN
DEVELOP, WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SYSTEM NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION, AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
WILL LIKELY CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING EL SALVADOR,
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR, AND TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 11.0N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.6N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 11.9N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 12.4N 89.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 11.8N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 10.7N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 9.5N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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