155
WTPZ44 KNHC 292056
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 29 2023
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, MOSTLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1600 UTC, HOWEVER,
SHOWED ONLY 25-30 KT WINDS A FAIR DISTANCE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO 30 KT OR LESS, THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED WILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS A BIT SOUTHEAST
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, WITH ONLY A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT NOTED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE
STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY EARLY MONDAY DUE TO
STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY TAKE THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR LATE ON TUESDAY, CLOSE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH, THOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE, SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE TREND. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW SINCE THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS THE DEPENDENCE ON THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT.
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IN LIGHT OR MODERATE SHEAR.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOTED IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ON TUESDAY, SO THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEVEL OFF THEN, BUT IS
STILL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME
DOWN A BIT, THOUGH SINCE THE CORRECTED-CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS
UNCHANGED, THE NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
AT LONG RANGE, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING EL SALVADOR,
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR WHERE A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING EL SALVADOR,
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 10.8N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.9N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.2N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 11.7N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 12.0N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 89.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 11.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 10.0N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 9.0N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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