104
WTPZ44 KNHC 301451
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 30 2023
PILAR APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT VERY DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER, WITH MORE ORGANIZATION IN LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES
NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
45 KT, WHICH MATCHES THE RECENT TAFB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AND IS
CLOSE TO THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS VALUE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A MORE PRECISE LOOK AT THE STORM.
THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, AND MOST
MODELS CONTINUE THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER,
NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS STALL PILAR NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THEY STILL KEEP THE CORE OF THE
STORM OFFSHORE. ON WEDNESDAY, PILAR WILL LIKELY TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM MOVING
VERY CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF ITS TRACK ON APPROACH TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST, GENERALLY NEAR OR A BIT NORTH OF THE LAST TRACK
PREDICTION.
PILAR HAS A DAY OR TWO TO INTENSIFY IN MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
RESPOND TO THIS FORCING BY SHOWING PILAR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH,
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE SAME PEAK AS THE LAST
ADVISORY. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
COULD CAUSE PILAR TO LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN,
ALONG WITH ANY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM A GAP WIND EVENT OR
STORM-INDUCED UPWELLING. THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THAN THE LAST CYCLE, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
UPWARD AT THAT TIME FRAME.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM PILAR WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD TO COSTA RICA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS, AND
NICARAGUA, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA, AND NICARAGUA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PILAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 11.1N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 11.3N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 11.5N 89.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.1N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 11.7N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 11.2N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 10.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 9.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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