103
WTPZ44 KNHC 302045
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 PM CDT MON OCT 30 2023
PILAR SEEMS TO HAVE HELD SOMEWHAT STEADY THIS AFTERNOON. 1-MINUTE
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO BE EXPOSED JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AS THE CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST GRADUALLY CLEARS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALED A DECENT CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CORE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 39-51 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT, CLOSEST TO THE SAB T3.0/45 KT VALUE.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS MOTION, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. BY TUESDAY EVENING, PILAR IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR WITH THE CORE OF THE STORM OFFSHORE. BY
WEDNESDAY THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AWAY
FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE FLOW OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION, LARGELY DUE TO
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING PILAR.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STORM SHOULD
STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE WARM WATERS AND
IN A MOIST AIRMASS. AFTER 36 H, THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. BY DAYS 3-5,
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN, THE LONG-RANGE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND IS CLOSE
TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM PILAR WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD TO COSTA RICA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS, AND
NICARAGUA, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA, AND NICARAGUA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PILAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 11.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 11.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 11.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.3N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 12.2N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 11.8N 91.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 93.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 10.1N 98.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 9.9N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page