720
WTPZ44 KNHC 020838
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 AM CDT THU NOV 02 2023
AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT, A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED WITH PILAR EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE COMPACT STORM IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH A
SMALL COLD DENSE OVERCAST, AND THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN AS A RESULT OF THIS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A T3.0/45 KT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION
FROM TAFB AND A 45-KT SATCON ESTIMATE.
PILAR IS ACCELERATING WESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND (265 DEGREES/12 KT).
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF PILAR, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE. AS A RESULT, PILAR SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL,
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF
PILAR, WITH MORE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION.
ONCE AGAIN, THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION BASED ON THE LATEST TVCE AND HCCA AIDS.
PILAR IS NEAR A STRONG BAND OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. THE GAP WIND FLOW COULD
INTRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR INTO PILAR'S CIRCULATION AND/OR BRIEFLY
DISRUPT ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS IN A GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS MORE SPREAD NOTED
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT 48-72 H. SOME OF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS (HWRF, HAFS-A) SHOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD, WHILE
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND OTHER REGIONAL GUIDANCE (HMON, HAFS-B) SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE OR SOME WEAKENING. GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY
AND GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS CYCLE, THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
PERIOD. BUT OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS PILAR GAINS LATITUDE AT DAYS 4-5, IT SHOULD
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN MORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 12.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 11.5N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 10.6N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 10.0N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 9.9N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 10.3N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 11.3N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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