251
WTPZ44 KNHC 022036
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 PM CDT THU NOV 02 2023
PILAR HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT LACKS
BANDING FEATURES WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT, INTRUDING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. DESPITE THIS STEADY STATE APPEARANCE, A RECENT ASCAT-C
PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KT, AND THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED BACK UP TO 50 KT. THIS VALUE IS ABOVE
THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. PILAR IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED TO ONLY EXTEND UP TO 60 N MI
FROM THE CENTER AND ITS OVERALL DEEP CLOUD FIELD ONLY EXTENDING A
LITTLE MORE THAN 100 N MI ACROSS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND PILAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ARE MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE WARM, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE
COULD CONTINUE TO INTRUDE INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE NET RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, PILAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF
STRONGER SHEAR, AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, MOSTLY BASED
ON THE INITIAL INTENSITY, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE STORM IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 14 KT. A CONTINUED
SWIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS STEERED BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME, A SLOW DOWN AND
A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 11.6N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 10.9N 99.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 10.4N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 10.3N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 10.5N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 10.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 11.2N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 12.3N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 13.6N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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