681
WTPZ44 KNHC 031447
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT FRI NOV 03 2023
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER PILAR THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE
MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY
ORGANIZED. THIS DISRUPTION IN ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY DUE TO
WESTERLY SHEAR. THE PULSING NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
PILAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WITH THOSE
ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY DECREASED FOR THIS CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
LEANS TOWARD THE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS, WHICH WAS A 3.0 FROM TAFB. WITH
CONVECTION BURSTING ONCE AGAIN AND THE DVORAK CI VALUES, THIS
SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY STEADY AT 45 KT.
PILAR IS MOVING SWIFTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD (255/18 KT), STEERED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN, AND
PILAR SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD
SPEED OF PILAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS, AND LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PILAR CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE, WITH A
PULSING CONVECTIVE BURST FROM TIME-TO-TIME. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
PILAR, INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE WITHIN VARYING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS, AS
PILAR MOVES NORTHWESTWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WILL WEAKEN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PILAR WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 10.2N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 9.9N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 9.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 10.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 11.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 14.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY
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