521
WTPZ44 KNHC 032034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
400 PM CDT FRI NOV 03 2023
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PILAR CONTINUES TO PULSE, AND IT
STILL LACKS BANDING FEATURES. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT, AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED
PEAK WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 40 KT. PILAR REMAINS A
VERY COMPACT STORM AND IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD KEEP PILAR ON A WESTWARD
PATH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS ON THE FAR
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ON THE FAR LEFT
SIDE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE SINCE PILAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND WILL
MORE LIKELY MOVE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
PILAR WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER
THAT TIME, HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. PILAR IS
NOW FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 9.9N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 10.0N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 10.2N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 10.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 11.4N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 12.1N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 13.8N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 15.5N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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