926
WTPZ44 KNHC 040240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
900 PM MDT FRI NOV 03 2023
PILAR IS NOT MUCH TO LOOK AT TONIGHT. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CENTER HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD SWING, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS STARTING TO REDEVELOP CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS ON THE 37-GHZ
CHANNEL ALSO SUGGESTED THAT, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT, AND GIVEN THE EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT, THOUGH
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
SMALL PILAR SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, WHICH
IS HONESTLY NOT ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PLENTY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY OF NEARBY DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE STORM HAS CONTINUED TO PERIODICALLY SNUFF OUT ITS CONVECTION,
PREVENTING MUCH ORGANIZATION. THUS, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE STORM MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY, ASSUMING DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SMALL CYCLONE IN CHECK. AFTER 36 H, SHEAR
BEGINS TO INCREASE FURTHER, AND WEAKENING AFTER THAT POINT IS
FORECASTED. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOW PILAR WEAKENING
INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 H WITH DISSIPATION BY 120 H, BUT BOTH OF
THESE STATUSES COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST, AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF MODEL.
PILAR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
260/15 KT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH WITH GRADUAL SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD MOTION AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BECOME ERODED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED
NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY RESULT IN
A BIT MORE POLEWARD MOTION IN PILAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE
AGAIN, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF TRACK SPREAD, MOSTLY RELATED TO
HOW VERTICALLY DEEP PILAR REMAINS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE STEADFAST IN MAINTAINING PILAR AS A VERTICALLY DEEP
CYCLONE, AND TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE TROUGH
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS. THE ECWMF (AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF ITS
ENSEMBLES) ULTIMATELY DECOUPLE ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL ONE, RESULTING IN A FASTER AND MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER SCENARIO, WHICH ALSO IS CLOSER
TO THE TVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS JUST A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST COMPARED TO THE PRIOR ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 9.9N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 9.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 9.9N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 10.5N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 11.1N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 12.4N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 14.0N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page