497
WTPZ44 KNHC 041451
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
900 AM MDT SAT NOV 04 2023
PILAR'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN
WITH A FEW NEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR SURFACE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB, AND A RECENT SATCON ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS.
DRY, STABLE MARINE-LAYER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PREVENT PILAR
FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, AND THIS NEGATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC CONTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND THIS SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND BY MONDAY. SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS INTENSITY AIDS CLOSELY AND INDICATES THAT PILAR
WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 60 HOURS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN
4 DAYS OR LESS.
PILAR'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 275/13 KT,
AND IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A REDUCTION IN THE CYCLONE'S FORWARD
SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING PILAR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWESTWARD BY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS AN INCREASE IN
ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS, SPECIFICALLY WITH THE GFS
LYING TO THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BEYOND 36
HOURS, AND THE ECMWF ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED TOWARD THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE NOAA HFIP HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 10.2N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 10.7N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 11.3N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 12.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 13.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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