611
WTPZ44 KNHC 042034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
300 PM MDT SAT NOV 04 2023
PILAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN, AND
OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT. HOWEVER, AN ASCAT-B PASS FROM A
FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED PEAK WINDS AROUND 35 KT OVER A SMALL AREA IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PILAR
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A LITTLE INCREASE IN PILAR'S WINDS DURING THAT TIME. BY EARLY
MONDAY, HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND, AND PILAR WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
TOUCH HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM, AND LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
PILAR IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON HOW
VERTICALLY DEEP PILAR WILL BE, WHICH AFFECTS HOW MUCH LATITUDE THE
STORM GAINS. THE GFS REMAINS THE MODEL ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. SINCE PILAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES
TO FAVOR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF AND HCCA MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 10.4N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 10.6N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 11.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 11.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 12.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 14.6N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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